Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Oulu
Carbon neutral Oulu in 2035 is set as an objective in the Oulu City Strategy. The strategy uses greenhouse gas emissions per capita as an indicator. Carbon neutrality is defined as reduction of emissions by at least 80% compared to the year 1990, used as a reference year, and compensation of the remaining emissions.
Statistics about greenhouse gas emissions are obtained with a delay of approximately one year. However, an estimate of the emissions for the previous year is released each spring.
Total greenhouse gas emissions in Oulu (territorial)
The greenhouse gas emissions of the City of Oulu in 2023 were around 718,800 tonnes (CO2-equivalent). This includes emissions caused by heating, consumer electricity consumption, transport, agriculture and waste management, as well as industry and machinery. Heating includes district, electrical, oil, wood and geothermal heating. Traffic includes road traffic, port, railways and aviation. Aviation was included in the most recent calculationa and has been calculated retrospectively from 2010 onwards.
Compared to 1990, total emissions have almost halved, even though the number of inhabitants has increased by nearly 60%. Compared to the previous year, total emissions decreased by about 15%. Emissions from consumers' electricity consumption decreased the most. According to preliminary data, total emissions decreased by about ten per cent in 2024 compared to the previous year.
The figures above are based on CO2-report calculation method. Other methods for reporting territorial (also called sector-based) emissions are also used, e.g. for the Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy reporting. These methods are not comparable as they include different sectors and the rules for calculating the emissions for each sector also vary. Yet another method is used for the Northern Ostrobothnia Climate Roadmap.
Emission scenarios
Estimates have been made of the development of greenhouse gas emissions in Oulu for the years 2026, 2030 and 2035. According to estimates, the current emission reduction measures will not be sufficient to achieve the carbon neutrality target set by the city in 2035. However, achieving this goal is not only in the city's own hands, it also depends heavily on the actions of the state, companies and residents alike.
The city's measures related to climate change mitigation are divided into the following areas: energy production and Oulun Energia's carbon neutrality, sustainable mobility and transport, construction and facility services, waste management and circular economy, land use and carbon sinks, and the education, education and culture sectors.
Based on the identified mitigation measures and national climate policy guidelines, the city's future emissions development in these sectors has been assessed. Based on the estimate, total emissions in 2035 would be 430 kt CO2 equivalent, i.e. about 69 per cent lower than in 1990. In other words, the 80 per cent emission reduction target would not yet be achieved with the measures now identified. Transport is a particularly challenging sector. Further measures must also be targeted at industrial emissions. These two sectors are estimated to account for a total of 80 per cent of emissions in 2035.
The graph below shows the greenhouse gas emissions in Oulu in the base year 1990 and the monitoring year 2021, as well as estimates of the development of emissions for 2026, 2030 and 2035. The emissions have been calculated using the calculation model of the CO2 report, which the city uses to monitor the development of its emissions annually. The emissions forecast for 2026 is proving to be pessimistic. The predicted level will most likely be reached already in 2024. The forecasts for 2030 and 2035 will be updated in 2027 at the latest. Note! The sectors of the actual emissions in the previous section and the forecasts below do not fully correspond to each other. For 1990, the road transport section also includes railways and ports. In the projections, municipal waste management also includes industrial waste management.
Consumption-based emissions
In order to mitigate climate change, it is still essential to replace fossil fuels with renewable forms of energy and invest in energy efficiency and energy saving. In climate work, however, attention should also be turned to emissions caused by consumption. Municipalities play a significant role in climate work together with the state level. They have the opportunity to support their residents make climate-friendly choices, for example by investing in public transport, school meals and offering low-emission district heating. Communication and information sharing are additional ways for making an impact.
The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. To achieve this goal, per capita emissions should be 2.5 tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2030 and reduced to 0.7 tonnes by 2050.
Kulma calculation model
The Kulma calculation model for consumption-based emissions divides emissions into five sectors: energy consumption, construction, transportation, food and goods and services. The sectors are further divided into more specific sub-sectors.
The calculation model developed in cooperation by Sitowise and Natural Resources Institute Finland is the first Finnish calculation model for municipal consumption-based emissions, which has been comparably applied to a large number of municipalities. The calculation model was first piloted in a pilot project implemented in 2021. After that two additional calculation rounds have been implemented. In the most recent calculation round the consumption-based emissions for 2024 were calculated for a total of 22 municipalities. The development of the model is continuous and has been supported by a wide network of experts.
For the latest round, results for participating municipalities varied from 7.1 tonnes to 9.9 tonnes in 2024. This means there is still some way to go before reaching a sustainable level. In Oulu, the consumption-based emissions have decreased from 8.85 CO2-ekv per capita in 2020 to 8.05 in 2024.
Overlaps and differences between consumption-based and sector-based calculations
When talking about municipal greenhouse gas emissions, we often mean greenhouse gas emissions calculated using territorial or sector-based calculation models. These calculation models cover mainly emissions caused by energy consumption within the municipality and waste management, as well as other emissions occurring within the municipality's geographical area. For example, emissions from agriculture and product manufacturing within the municipality are included in the calculation, regardless of where the products are consumed. When calculating consumption-based greenhouse gas emissions, the calculation includes all emissions caused by the consumption of citizens, regardless of where the consumed goods were produced. For example, emissions from food and goods consumed by citizens are included in the calculation, even if the production takes place outside the municipality's or Finland's borders.